DIRECTIONS FOR DEVELOPING A REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

The transition of the Republic of Uzbekistan toward a high-output industrial economy constitutes the bedrock of the national "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy, necessitating a paradigmatic shift from qualitative governance to advanced econometric forecasting. This research synthesizes a strategic framework for the Surkhandarya region, a pivotal southern industrial node that, despite demonstrating resilient growth, currently contributes only 1.4% to the national industrial aggregate. To address this disparity, we deploy a sophisticated methodological apparatus integrating Multiple Linear Regression for macroeconomic benchmarking, Complex Number Modeling to capture auxiliary economic dimensions, and ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for temporal forecasting. By analyzing longitudinal data from 2010 to 2024, the study identifies critical efficiency tiers—ranging from a resource-bound 21.1% to a harmonized optimal effect of 54.7%—and classifies the region’s districts into specific developmental strata. The implementation of complex number modeling proves transformative, utilizing imaginary units to represent non-primary capital and management labor, thereby revealing hidden cross-sectoral dependencies. Our results indicate that while national GDP is highly responsive to investment, regional industrial output requires targeted structural interventions in "activity levels" to realize a forecasted 1.3-fold increase by 2028. This document provides actionable policy directions for establishing youth entrepreneurship zones and industrial clusters to catalyze sustainable regional optimization.